Why is it risky for Russia to export BrahMos missiles into the South China Sea? The Express Tribune

Russia may send signal to China that it wants to “balance” Beijing in the South China Sea

Roman Babushkin, deputy head of the Russian Embassy’s mission in India, announced his country’s intention last week to export jointly produced BrahMos supersonic missiles to the Philippines. According to the indian outlet ImprintThe exact words he said during the virtual media conference:

“One of the major projects is JV BrahMos, all trials of contemporary versions are successful. Gradually plans to increase the range of these special missiles and, of course, begin exporting to a third country, starting with the Philippines. It is a continuous process. “

Mr Babuskin’s policy announcement confirmed last year’s reports that Russia was planning to export these potentially game-changing missiles to the South China Sea. The author also wrote about that possibility in his analysis in August 2019 about how “Russia may use BrahMos missiles for ‘remaining’ China in South China Sea“. It is certainly Moscow’s sovereign right to conduct its own” military diplomacy “- the use of military means, especially for export, political, and even economic ends – although it chooses so much, But observers should be aware of the risks inherent to this strategy. Concerns China.

Russia is slowly moving closer to India at the perceived (key word) expense of China, as the author asked in September “Is Russia re-examining or abandoning its ‘balance’ act between China and India?It was a chance to re-read this dynamic once again earlier this month, while influential BJP official Subramanian Swamy reacted to India’s historical ties with Russia, which the author told about how “Extreme pro-US BJP thinkers should not be allowed to sabotage Russian-Indian relations“, But apparently Moscow decided to remain on the course without any changes as seen last week.

This certainly speaks to the lasting grand strategic importance that Russia places on its relations with India, particularly with China, which Moscow shares with both of the great powers jointly in their interests. Enables to jointly “manage”. Mr. Babushkin announced that Russia would export its jointly produced BrahMos supersonic missiles to the Philippines, even if that country was involved in a territorial dispute with China and would likely use those weapons in any possible military against the People’s Republic . Scenario Since it is unrealistic to imagine that he is fighting against another of his neighbors.

In other words, Russia may signal to China that it is potentially turning Beijing into a partnership with India to “balance” the South China Sea – or even the possibility of Russian-American synergy Is not (“New Detent”)), Supplement – after the recent Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, the Quad reduced the impact of that military bloc. In a recent excerpt from the author himself, he wrote of a later observation of how “RCEP fires anti-Chinese fairs of tractor“, But Russia’s planned BrahMos exports to the region may change that count.

To be perfectly clear, Russia has not intended to be aggressively “encapsulated”, including the US and India such as China, but seems to have “neutralized” its efforts under the guise of “balance” So that it can be corrected. Or unfairly respects its national interests. These appear to be military-driven comprehensive reforms of strategic relations with India, leveraging it to leverage more regional partners in Asia such as the potential game-changing export of BrahMos supersonic missiles to the Philippines. Only to be used in any realistic war scenario against China.

At the same time, however, Russia always tries its best to bring about a comprehensive improvement in relations with China. The two neighboring Great Powers are close military partners, and Moscow is also helping to develop Beijing Missile attack warning system Only Russia and the US have, among other joint projects of enormous strategic importance. Despite Russia’s risky BrahMos gambling in the South China Sea, there is no threat of direct or proxy war between them. Whatever it is, Russia is selling those missiles because it feels confident that what is right or wrong is that China will not react in any negative way to that development.

Nevertheless, it should be pointed out how risky this policy is despite Russia having sovereign authority to practice it. China is unlikely to respond directly or comment publicly on this development, even if it does pass, but that does not mean it will not take notice of it and possibly make the move very much against the spirit of their soul Explains itself as inappropriate strategic partnership. The worst case scenario would be if China targets the geographical expansion scope of the Russian-Indian military partnership against its own interests, which could trigger a self-perpetuating cycle of mistrust that could result in a security dilemma.

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